Hello I have a question

[shipdapaper]

This is my first post on theRX.
I have been a on again off again sports bettor for 5 years and full time poker player for almost 3 years.

Baseball
My question is this.....This year i have wondered if going agaisnt heavy public betting would be postive EV.... The point that I would try to argue would be if one team is getting a ton of action on it then the Book would compensate the runline by moving it to get more action on the Dog to even out so they win juice....

Would you not get a better value if you are betting the dog agaisnt heavy public betting because the line is inflated to spread the action. Even though you wouldnt win often...but over the long run you would be ahead because the value of the bet would be more than what it should be.

Also if you always bet the book side(agaisnt the public) would you not come out on top in the long run because the books are there for a reason they always come out on top....

One other question if all the above is true...then the extra value that you get from betting the dog on inflated runlines would that be enough to over come the juice if you are just betting the book side.....


Shipdapaper

 

[wrongturn]

I would guess there are also plenty of sharp bettors who bet the attractive dog lines, which eventually makes the lines close to the right odd. So you can't assume the dog lines are always inflated.

 

[shipdapaper]

well im not proclaming that they are always inflated just the ones that are getting major action on them....even if there were sharp bettors coming in and taking the dog lines there wouldnt be enough to compensate public side... would they? so that would give it value... correct?
I may be way off here and if so please help me understand.

Thanks for your help!!

Shipdapaper

 

[wrongturn]

I don't know much detail either. My feeling is that sharp bettors are also heavy bettors since when they find best values, they want to maximize the profit. Unless the game is superbowl caliber which public money can have great influence, normally the daily game price is more or less within the correct odd I would say.